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Petrol still ahead of the pack in 2030

Experts in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand say petrol will still be our main source of fuel in 15 years. The good news is the price of hybrid and battery-fuelled vehicles is likely to fall too.

This is the results of a Queensland Institute of Technology survey of academics, government and industry. It concluded petrol would still be dominant in 2030, followed by hybrid vehicles and battery power.

Vehicle Type Market Share
   2030  2016
 Petrol  35.0%  95.9%
 Hybrid  24.2%  3.8%
 Battery  15.9%  0.3%

Diesel was once popular because it was cheaper than petrol. But it will lose market share to hybrid and battery-based technologies, fuelling 15% of vehicles in 2030. Diesel is toxic. In fact, Toyota decided to focus on hybrids, rather than diesel, because it wanted to be able to meet future, stringent emission requirements.

Falling costs

The continuing role of petrol is probably not the best news for people with a strong environmental conscience.

On the other hand, the price of hybrid and battery-fuelled vehicles is likely to fall 11-25% by 2030, compared to 2016 prices. Petrol vehicles will probably remain stable at today’s prices. Battery electric-powered vehicles will probably become more efficient, as well as cheaper.

Manufacturers are already preparing for the new mix of vehicles. Audi and Volvo are developing new plug-in hybrid and electric models and Volkswagen is introducing 30 electric models in the next decade.

Other countries are showing us where vehicles are heading. Norway already has nearly a quarter of vehicles running on electricity. A recent news story – it would completely ban the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2025 – was not confirmed. But it is a sign of future thinking.

It will be interesting to see how accurate the experts are in their predictions.

Vehicles of all kinds, unfortunately, need a green slip…

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